Tuesday, 30 September 2014

By-election preview: 2 October 2014

There are six by-elections on 2nd October.  Five are covered over on the English Elections blog here.  The week's final poll, a Labour defence in the Cardiff suburbs, is previewed below.

LLANDAFF NORTH
Cardiff city council, Glamorgan
Caused by the resignation of Labour councillor Siobhan Corria, over "culture, attitude and sexism" within the Labour Party.  Corria, who was in her first term on the council, had served for seven months as cabinet member for children's services but stood down from that role in February 2014 after starting a new job.

Lydstep Flats, Gabalfa
This division is in north-western Cardiff, on the opposite bank of the River Taff to Llandaff proper.  Demographically it's an area of two halves; the inner half is the Gabalfa council estate, while the outer half (close to Llandaff railway station) is a more middle-class area.  The division's Wikipedia page contains an interesting conspiracy theory as to how this arrangement came about.

In the 2004 and 2008 elections the division was a closely-fought Lib Dem/Labour battle; the parties split the two seats between them in 2004, while the Lib Dems won both seats in 2008 with 41% to 32% for Labour.  Labour easily gained both seats in the ward at the 2012 election; interestingly the Lib Dems crashed to third behind a new slate of "Llandaff North Independents" led by David Coggans Cogan, a former chairman of Cardiff North Lib Dems who had managed the rare feat of getting expelled from the party for harassing the outgoing councillors.  Although the division is within a key marginal parliamentary constituency (Cardiff North) the Tories are also-rans here.

Susan White is the defending Labour candidate.  Coggins Cogan stands again for the Llandaff North Independents, while former Lib Dem councillor for the ward Ann Rowland-James will try to get her seat back.  Also on the ballot paper are the Tories' Peter Hudson and the ward's first UKIP candidate, Simon Zeigler.

Parliamentary and Assembly constituency: Cardiff North
Assembly electoral region: South Wales Central
ONS Travel to Work Area: Cardiff

David Coggins Cogan (Llandaff North Inds)
Peter Hudson (C)
Ann Rowland-James (LD)
Susan White (Lab)
Simon Zeigler (UKIP)

May 2012 result Lab 1244/1156 Llandaff North Inds 607/507 LD 375/356 C 154 PC 141 Grn 101
May 2008 result LD 976/908 Lab 771/757 C 453/390 PC 195/163
June 2004 result Lab 804/677 LD 755/740 C 355/263 PC 183/179

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